SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. (KRON) — We’re just two days away from the presidential election and right now, Joe Biden is slightly leading Donald Trump in the national polls.
However that doesn’t guarantee a victory and a lot can change within just a couple of days.
While Biden leads Trump in the national polls on Sunday, political science experts like David Mccuan say it’s more important to pay attention to what’s happening in each state.
“Really what you need to pay attention to is what’s happening state by state and within states, specific county,” McCuan said. “For example when you’re looking at Florida, for President Trump to win reelection, he has to win Florida.”
You may remember in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a clear lead over Trump in the polls, but she ended up losing the Electoral College, the voting system that assigns each state a number of electoral votes which then go to the candidate who wins that state.
“Look at is any candidate above 50% or at 49? In the last week of the election, that’s when people should be at some barometer close to 50. Secretary Clinton was never there and those late breaking, independent-minded working class voters broke heavily for Donald Trump because he gave voice to their grievance,” McCuan said. “This time we’re seeing more young people, more underrepresented groups, more people agitated and angered and so they’re voting in big numbers. Can Republican appearances, the voters who are Republican leaning that show up on Election Day – will they be enough to offset?”
Over the next two days, Mccuan says people should closely watch swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania, which will be pivotal in the presidential race.
“For the president their path to 270, 280 it’s pretty narrow. It does come down to Florida but it also comes down to places like Pennsylvania while they lock in Ohio,” McCuan said. “These will be things to watch and as your viewers do this, pay very close attention to what are called likely voter polls, not registered voters or registered to vote and maybe they’ll vote. 93 million people didn’t vote in 2016. That’s another component to this. A lot of 18 to 29-year-old’s didn’t vote in 2016 so what happens to likely voters? These are people who have a track record of voting in the past and will they vote again in 2020?”