SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. (KRON) — In the Bay Area, the overall unemployment numbers are slightly above the nationwide average — but below the statewide rate.
KRON4’s Philippe Djegal spoke with an economist who believes the economy is recovering faster than experts predicted at the start of the pandemic.
For 20 consecutive weeks, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says the number of new unemployment claims exceeded one million.
But in July, the overall rate fell almost a full percent to 10.2%.
Still, that’s nearly seven percent higher than the lows the economy enjoyed back in February.
“Six months ago, the economy was doing really well,” Walth advisor George Noceti said. “We were almost at full employment, and then we had this healthcare risk that came about, which turned into a financial risk, and now it’s morphing into a political risk as we wrestle with the Cares Act.”
In California, the Employment Development Department’s latest stats show the unemployment rate at 14.9%.
In the nine Bay Area counties, the average rate comes to just over 12%.
George Noceti is a Walnut Creek-based wealth advisor for Morgan Stanley.
He says those who’ve recently filed for unemployment are largely service workers who could benefit from another stimulus package.
“Half of those filers were people who had been working, were laid off, brought back because of the Care Act. And, with the Care Act expiring last week, they’ve been laid off again,” Noceti said. “So, we were going to have fewer numbers. But because of this delay in getting the Cares Act approved in some form or fashion, it’s caused employers to lay a number of people off again.”
Noceti says minorities and African Americans in particular, have been hit especially hard financially during the pandemic.
He says the Black unemployment rate is often up to two times the national average.
Right now, it stands at 14.6%.
“They’re the first ones hit when there’s a recession, and especially with this COVID-19 where a lot of those individuals happen to work in big boxes, like hotels and restaurants and places like that,” Noceti said. “So, their numbers are going back up again definitely.”
But he expects those numbers will start to trend down once a vaccine for COVID-19 is developed and distributed.
Overall, Noceti believes that economy is no longer in recession and that the nation’s unemployment rate will fall below 9% by the end of the year and possibly fall under 5% by late next year.
Latest News Headlines: