SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. (KRON) – If you’ve ever wondered what the chances are of getting a breakthrough COVID case in San Francisco, there are now estimates.
The New York Times put out new data Tuesday estimating those who are vaccinated have a one in 10,000 chance of getting COVID in the city.
That’s lower than other parts of the country where vaccination rates are much lower.
Infectious disease doctor at UCSF, Monica Gandhi says this information is useful because we’ve never had a quantification before.
She says those numbers aren’t far off, however, the chances of getting a breakthrough case are now likely even lower than that as the city’s case rate continues to decline.
In San Francisco, where nearly 80% of residents 12 and older have received at least one dose of the vaccine, the chances of a breakthrough case are much lower, as expected.
However, Dr. Monica Gandhi says with cases now declining in the city, it’s likely those chances are even lower.
“As our rate has come down because we’ve had higher circulating cases at the beginning of August, now we’re watching the test positivity rate drop by half actually. We’re less. We’re at about a 4% test positivity rate. We were up to 10% in early August so then you have even less of a chance of a breakthrough because you have less of a chance of running across the virus so it was helpful to give this sort of quantification in cities like ours, in the Northeast,” Dr. Gandhi said.
Dr. Gandhi says those chances could go up in certain areas of the city that currently have higher transmission rates, like the Bay View, SoMa, and Castro neighborhoods for example.
“Again this is not strict quantification. There are areas and populations where breakthrough infections are more likely. These are more densely populated areas. These are populations of essential workers. That’s always been where there’s more severe disease before the vaccination and now where there are more symptomatic breakthroughs,” Dr. Gandhi said.
Dr. Gandhi predicts the probability of getting a breakthrough case is similar in the rest of the Bay Area, minus Solano County that hasn’t mirrored the rest of the Bay Area with its guidelines and has had higher transmission rates.
“I think it’s useful to quantitate but I also want to say one thing. Everyone’s personal risk toleration is different. Do what feels comfortable for you in terms of your activities as you resume them,”
Meanwhile, the times found in places like Utah, Virginia and King County, Washington state, breakthrough cases are more likely at one in 5,000 people.
Overall, the chances of vaccinated people getting COVID were more likely in the southeast of the country and less likely in the northeast, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.