SAN FRANCISCO (KRON) — The number of people in the United States dying from COVID-19 is predicted to rise to over 410,000 by January 1, 2021, according to a projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

That’s nearly triple the latest reported deaths. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 185,052 residents in the United States have died from the novel coronavirus this year, the last update being Thursday afternoon.

The projection model assumes that “social distancing mandates will continue to be lifted, but will be re-imposed for six weeks if daily death rates reach 8 per million.”

As of September 2, the California Department of Public Health reports that 13,327 people in the state have died from COVID-19.

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